Election is Trump’s to lose, he is capable of doing so, and we intend to engage

Ed Note: We have not posted here in quite awhile.  We have had some time and energy issues for a month or more but have not been inactive in posting political commentary elsewhere, particularly Townhall properties.  For the record we will repost some of those here in coming days.  This post, such as it is, has not appeared anywhere else. 


The 2024 Presidential election at this writing might be Trump’s to loose.  General polling and battleground state polling, suggests that the momentum is Trump’s but also that Biden support is deteriorating within key groups. However the party nomination for either is  presumptive, not finalized. It is not over until it is over. Nominees could change.  While it is looking better for Trump on the legal front we still maintain there is a 5% chance something could upset the Trump train — if not the law-fare against him, health and particularly his foot in mouth disease although that won’t make him quit, only be untenable such that the otherwise convention comes apart.

Machinations in the Democrat Party are to be expected. Intrigues abound as to possible replacements for Biden and were something to be afoot they  are much more closely determined than Republican processes. Most of the intrigues there are are about what the RINOs might put together to join with Dems to defeat Trump.

Our instincts at this point are that Joe is not likely to go on his own volition and it is pretty much too late now anyway. Plus he has now scored enough delegates pledged to to him to be in control. His all important grifter family needs the presidency for their sustenance and safety, as does Joe.

The Dems are between a rock and a hard place as to alternative candidates. Kamala Harris polls even worse than Biden. Michelle Obama it appears is not going to allow herself the nomination (and we believe is eminently beatable anyway). Dems would have to invent someone and AI is not that far along as yet. Certain institutional aspects propel Biden as their least worst choice.

The Dem hope is that they can get people to vote institutionally (party) (their people largely do) and that they can sufficiently portray Trump, the putative Republican nominee, as dangerous, to get enough so-called no-party people to not vote for Trump and even vote for Joe Bidementia.  This will be  “facilitated” by the exuberance of their dependents to even cheat to win in battleground electoral states. There will be no talk by them of the electoral college being anti-democratic this election.

We choose to honor the full Republican nomination process, something Trump refused to do.  There are states yet to decide and delegates of various discretions to be chosen. Trump is not the official nominee as yet.  Our pledge is to vote for the Republican nominee as there is no viable alternative to the abhorrent Democrat party and its leadership, not to engage in sycophancy ignoring any significant Trump foul-ups, misdirections of the party, statements against conservative interests, nor will we ignore Trump’s tendency to engage in misprisions, a particular bête noire of ours.

In any of our criticisms be assured we believe Democrat policies are rife with evil, their candidates undeserving of support compared to Republicans even the clinkers with the rarest of conceivable scenarios, in which case it would be better to write in Mickey Mouse.

In political practicality this election is a binary situation. Republican over Democrat across the board. As we approach the general circling the wagons ought not to mean allowing loose cannon activity go unchecked.

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Yeh it’s over for Nikki, she took the leap

Nikki Haley: ‘I absolutely trust’ that jury that ordered Trump to pay E. Jean Carroll $83 million

As reported in the American Thinker an interview Nikki Haley did included an exchange highlighted below. The article ads context but our conclusion is Haley cannot recover from this as for any serious hope of getting the nomination (if she thinks that is a realistic goal) . It has been apparent Haley has given up on luring Trump support away, relying on Never-Trump types, including Democrat cross-overs to hopefully carry the various contests. But it is (mostly) a Republican nomination and there is great sympathy toward Trump as regards the railroading and lawfare being deployed against him.

Haley’s  statement regarding the jury award against Trump (see below) in essence  endorses incredibly biased proceedings related to all aspects of the lawfare being used against Trump in the case starting with the apparent requirement for Trump to unquestionably prove innocence compared to the state merely having to prove the possibility of guilt.  And never mind that the accuser can’t even pin down the year the supposed sex assault by Trump happened and the jury and judge are thoroughly in the tank intent on finding Trump guilty on something, doing their part to stop his return to the presidency by hurting him in anyway possible.  The full article gets into some of those “details.”

A recent civil damages award was the result of statements made by Trump disparaging the truthfulness of his accuser after Trump was found guilty of sexual abuse but not rape (the accusers original charge). The woman is such a goof-ball that her writing included sordid discussions of rape fantasies and what might be interpreted as apologias for such after the alleged assault. That trial is under appeal by Trump.

Now Trump can  be disparaging toward women (public figures) and say other bone-headed things, a recent example being about history recalling his musing about the civil war ~~ if they had only tried negotiation prior ~~ and he is not shy about spreading political calumny and rumors about political rivals.  But all that involves public figures and his accuser was/is a public figure (author, columnist, publicity hound) and tried to enhance her public figure status (and bank account) with her charges against Trump  because deep pockets and Orange Man bad and her lawyer fees are paid by other Trump haters. 

Keep in mind the full context of the referenced quote as regards Haley is a jury ward of close to 90 million dollars for defamation (of a publicity hound) who accused Trump of rape on a day in a year she is not sure of other than being back in the 90’s, and other questionable testimony by her.

WELKER: What is unique about this case is that the jury has now ruled, they have found him liable of sexual abuse. Do you not trust the jury and their findings, ambassador?

HALEY: I absolutely trust the jury and i think that they made their decision based on the evidence, i just don’t think that should take him off the ballot, i think the american people will take him off the ballot. I think that’s the best way to go forward is not let him play the victim, let him play the loser. That’s what we want him to do at the end of the day. the accuser 

Haley knows the incredible background to all this and went there anyway.

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DeSantis suspends campaign, endorses Trump

And so it goes. Not our first disappointment in politics.  

See DeSantis speech upon suspending his campaign here.  Statement text below.

We do not know the legal or technical implications regarding suspending one’s presidential campaign rather than saying ‘I am out’ and shutting it down forthwith.  Perhaps it is just a matter of final accounting and whatever financial obligations there are to fulfill or related decisions to be made.

But if part of the reason is to facilitate being available prior to the convention or general we think it is a good idea to have our guy able to unsuspend.  Trump is over 77 years of age. Interpolating some actuarial tables he should make it to at least his mid to late 80’s (90%) but that might be modified by the degree of his being overweight. Some extra weight in latter years is protective of men and women but especially for women (osteoporosis and nutrition). If Trump is obese (probably) his numbers might be downgraded some.

More important to the next 7 months are Trump’s chances of  becoming disabled. He is presumably well monitored so let’s leave that at a 1% to 5% pessimistic probability but perhaps aggravated by stress.

On that score, given what is at stake and the not impossibility of other factors causing Trump to drop out or be denied the nomination by the RNC (his RNC by the way) and Milwaukee becoming a brokered affair of sorts due to some legal fait accompli that could still victimize Trump, we think it reasonable all factors considered to put the chances of him not making it through the convention at 5%. Not counting his own devices.

Even though the odds are by our estimation as much as 95%  favorable for Trump through the convention we think it prudent to have a back-up plan of DeSantis as he is superior to anyone Trump is likely to pick for VP between now and then as well.

Having someone  with better governmental executive creds  and other superiorities than Trump in the wings is a good thing. Trump is quite capable of figuratively biting the head off a live rat on stage, jumping the shark, what have you. He has certainly been nibbling at the rodent with his choices of words*,  and expressions of pure ego* without respite.  It is still possible Trump will say something to make his finalized nomination not tenable.  So hang in there Ron.


*see  previous two posts

DeSantis Statement Upon Suspension of Campaign 01-21-2024

Today I am emailing you from Florida. The warmth of being home is a reminder of why I have chosen a life of public service—from joining the United States Navy and serving in Iraq—to representing the people in Congress—and now serving as governor.

And it reminds me why I decided to run for President: to fight for those who have been forgotten in this country.

This is America’s time for choosing.  
We can choose to allow a border invasion or we can choose to stop it. 
We can choose reckless borrowing and spending or we can choose to limit government and lower inflation. 
We can choose political indoctrination, or we can choose classical education. 
These choices are symptoms of the underlying struggle to ensure that constitutional government can endure and that Western Civilization can survive.   
We launched this campaign to bring accountability to government, regain sovereignty at our border, and restore sanity to our society.   
We cannot succeed as a country if we allow our nation to be invaded, our currency to be debased, our cities to crumble, and our kids to be indoctrinated.

The DC elites who have facilitated this mess do not work for you, they do not care about you; they work for themselves. They seek to accumulate power at your expense to pursue an agenda that is harmful to the American people. 

Citizens do not serve politicians; it is the duty of politicians to serve you. Talk is cheap. Actions speak louder than words.

Reversing the decline of this nation requires leadership that delivers big results for the people we are elected to serve. I have a record of leading with conviction, championing an agenda marked by bold colors, delivering on my promises, and defeating the people who are responsible for our nation’s decline. That is the type of leadership we need for all of America. 

Now over the past many months, Casey and I have traveled across the country to deliver a message of hope, that decline is a choice, and that we, in fact, can succeed again as a nation. 

Nobody worked harder. And we left it all out on the field.   

Now following our second-place finish in Iowa, we have prayed and deliberated on the way forward. If there was anything I could do to produce a favorable outcome — more campaign stops, more interviews — I would do it.  But I can’t ask our supporters to volunteer their time and donate their resources if we don’t have a clear path to victory. 

Accordingly, I am today suspending my campaign.   

I am proud to have delivered on 100% of my promises and I will not stop now. It’s clear to me that a majority of Republican primary voters want to give Donald Trump another chance. They watched his presidency get stymied by relentless resistance and they see Democrats using lawfare to this day to attack him.  

While I have had disagreements with Donald Trump, such as on the coronavirus pandemic and his elevation of Anthony Fauci, Trump is superior to the current incumbent, Joe Biden. That is clear.
I signed a pledge to support the Republican nominee and I will honor that pledge. He has my endorsement because we can’t go back to the old Republican guard of yesteryear —a repackaged form of warmed-over corporatism—that Nikki Haley represents. 

The days of putting Americans last, of kowtowing to large corporations, of caving to woke ideology, are over. 

I thank all of our passionate supporters who have stood by us through it all. That we had people volunteer to come to Iowa in the middle of a blizzard to knock on doors and make phone calls touched us dearly. 

No candidate had more thrown at him, but no candidate had so many committed volunteers and staff.

Finally, I want to thank my wife Casey and our kids Madison, Mason, and Mamie. Casey has gone far above and beyond in her support for our campaign and for our cause. She is not only a great wife and mother; she is a great American, who cares deeply about the future of the country that our kids will inherit. 

Our kids have seen and done a lot on the trail, from playing on the famed Field of Dreams baseball site in Iowa to making their first snowman in New Hampshire. They are one of the reasons we fight so hard for what we believe in.

Winston Churchill once remarked that “success is not final, failure is not fatal — it is the courage to continue that counts.”   

While this campaign has ended, the mission continues. Down here in Florida, we will continue to show the country how to lead.

Thank you and God bless,

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Responding to triumphalism about Trump’s win in the Iowa Caucuses

Trump may well be the likely nominee.  That may be regretted as it portends an unnecessary type and level of struggle for the general election

On Tuesday, the day after the Iowa caucuses, Gary Bauer writing at American Values, a former candidate for the Republican presidential nomination himself, someone who we have frequently referred to, wrote a commentary that irked me enough to write a response to what I interpreted as its triumphalism and non-sequiturs as regards the results Monday night.  In subsequent days, seeing others write far more irksome pieces I should be busy indeed if I was so compelled but this will serve as vehicle enough.  Set forth below with edits for this publication and a political cartoon from the estimable Michael Ramirez, sometimes wrong but always biting.


(To Gary Bauer)

Your commentary regarding the money spent in the Iowa caucuses is wanting while the whole of the article has the feel triumphalism. It is the general election which all this is supposed to be about and in my judgement trepidation is in order if Trump is the nominee. Accordingly, to paraphrase William F Buckley ~~ it ought to be about the best to serve who can also win. Trump established himself as not all that good an executive compared to Ron DeSantis and as far as winning, any of four Republican candidates going into the Iowa precinct caucuses could beat Joe Biden given Biden’s terrible polling.

Regarding your comments my point / counterpoints follow.

In EOD-1-16-24 you say:

To win a clear majority of the vote on a night of severe weather and ice-covered roads was extraordinary.

Why? I live in Iowa, it was darn cold Monday night and the plows had not been through a lot of the side streets. I attended my precinct serving as a party official and have attended my precinct caucuses since at least 1980. You have campaigned in Iowa. Does not the weather affect every camp’s turnout, particularly if the bad weather was not localized (and it was not)? Would the same percentages in balmy weather not be extraordinary? That is a neutral observation from me as a DeSantis supporter.

You refer to a “clear majority”. Well the process does produce a hard-count and Trump obtained 51% and the others 49% combined. But that means barely half of the Republicans who felt the call to show up thought Trump the best candidate to go forward. Or did they? For the most part every Republican candidate’s supporters are desperate to get the country back. However I think a lot of the Trump vote was a sort of catharsis, sentiment or sympathy and would not survive as fully had Trump not been so “clever” — as in lacking the integrity to debate the others — rather than preside over controlled rallies, fan boy interviews, and tossing epithets at his opponents — the substance of his campaign. Too many of Trump’s supporters are oblivious to the effect of Trump’s personality on the majority of women voters. It is not intelligent voting but it is voting. For the most part with no-party women it is not really issues as much as personality. That is driving a lot of the Haley vote and will be more pronounced in the general.

Given Biden as the opponent, Trump or DeSantis could get 60% of the male vote. I think DeSantis has a better chance at surpassing the 40% of the female vote needed and with enough to overcome the Democrat cheating.

The general election campaign that can be built around such a photogenic family, the articulate wife with a compelling story of her own and the candidate’s personal record hasn’t happened for Republicans in modern history (perhaps ever) or for Democrats in 64 years and the Dems sure as heck do not have such a compelling combination now. This could be a popular and an electoral win the Dems can not cheat enough to alter. That is unless you think Trump would never endorse DeSantis and takes his devotees to a write-in campaign. Ask yourself, what kind of person then is Trump now as he at least allows talk of doing that as he refuses to pledge to support the Republican nominee?

IS THERE ANY ONE OF THOSE ACTIVELY CAMPAIGNING FOR THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION THAT YOU WOULD NOT SUPPORT OVER A DEMOCRAT, AND I MEAN ANY DEMOCRAT ON THE POLITICAL SCENE TODAY? The only rational CONSERVATIVE decision is no there is not, so how can you give any credence to the disturbing indeed disqualifying attitude of Trump? If you have not then please explain why as to your answer and why Trump should get away with it?

We know Trump is an egotist, it comes out in every rally and I have attended five and listened to others. It is no longer something I can pass off as a shtick. It hit me hardest due to his lack of contriteness over the iatrogenic devastation of Project Warped Speed. But I assume you will make excuses for him on that . . . he meant well . . . he was mislead — let’s agree to disagree on his culpability on that.

However, regarding Trump’s incredible ego,  how do you explain Trump’s response to questions about Nikki Haley’s Civil War comments? Ponder Trump’s remarks and get back to your readers on that. Trump’s comments are jaw-dropping ignorant as he implies he is well-read on the Civil War while implying if only he had been there to employ his negotiation skills . . . ( I guess the same ones that got the wall built, Mexico to pay for it, Obama Care fixed, gargantuan deficit spending packages approved perpetuating big-government, and not being able to “negotiate” /parlay his true successes juxtaposed to a Joe Biden in spite of Democrat cheating  . . .

Read it and other of Trumps pontifications honestly and you will understand how a lot of people may be seeing Trump’s ramblings as approaching Joe Biden level.  With increasing years the preciseness, the elocution, not to mention propriety are harder to pass off in “context”.

You say:
Believe it or not, Trump was outspent in Iowa by both DeSantis and Haley. In fact, Trump spent $340 per vote cast for him, while DeSantis spent $1,697 per vote and Haley spent $1,797 per vote.

The spending angle you emphasize as regards the Iowa caucuses is askew. They are meaningless figures unless you think Trump was on the same footing starting from scratch introducing himself to Iowans and did not have the benefit of the lions share of free media from outlets like yours and a couple dozen others I monitor, an ongoing apologia that Republican caucus goers tune in to far more frequently than liberal legacy media. Over the last seven years the value of that far eclipses the paid media figures in your gee-whiz comparison.

Oh to be sure there have been critiques of Trump in those news and commentary outlets but the zeitgeist has been sympathetic over the law-fare being waged against Trump. It is a sentiment I largely share but I believe not one that makes him either a great executive or the only candidate who can win or the best candidate to go forward. I also think that sentiment should not douse the reality that Trump was not shy about using law-fare in his business dealings to get what he wanted, including the use of eminent domain, law-suits, bankruptcy, and other species of law-fare. Do you deny that?

The criminal charges are what I have the most personal sympathy for Trump about. But Trump is not naive, nor was he a non-politician babe in the woods when he got to DC. Besides his 8 years pursuing the presidency he has been playing politics at local state and national levels to get the things done he wanted. Who seriously believes someone coming out of the rough and tumble of New York City politics can innocently claim ignorance of treachery and double dealings in politics. Yet Trump’s ego lets him be rolled repeatedly.

Other factors that also negate any validity to the implication you would like to impart to the spending totals comes from the very article you reference for the figures you use. Quoting that article: “Trump has largely avoided criticism on the Iowa airwaves, as Haley and DeSantis have devoted only a fraction of their ad budgets to targeting the front-runner compared to the sums they’ve directed toward attacking each other. Emphasis mine. Paraphrasing: By their analysis of airwave spending, only a fraction of the ad budgets targeted the front-runner (Trump) compared to the sums they directed toward attacking each other.

I believe not going somewhat negative early on, was a mistaken call by DeSantis. Whether not doing so was out of deference or to let Trump blabber on about disloyalty or something when Trump is one of the most disloyal Republicans I have seen in my decades of political involvement including those who actually abandon the party, and I live in Jim Leach’s old district. It is Trumps continuous veiled threat. Clearly he is mostly about Trump, not about Republicans, the conservative alternative party winning.

A short-time Republican even today Trump has less creds than DeSantis as to elected executive service, not to mention that DeSantis was a MAGA (TEA Party) type Republican winning on his own fighting the good fight in congress when Trump was still praising Hillary. May I mention that middle-class raised DeSantis chose service to country out of school rather than a no doubt lucrative career as a Yale then Harvard Law grad. Trump chose real-estate and dating.

Trump is definitively disloyal to the party. Refusing to pledge to support the considered opinion of the Republican caucus and primary voters, a disqualifying matter ironically put in place to protect him, another aspect to his disloyalty. Then there is his refusing to debate, an insult to the process, however clumsy it is an important way for people to evaluate candidates under pressure as they age rather than controlled environments.

And his accusative aura generates the return favor because he hires based on flattery and perhaps boob size. His disparagement of Republican processes (you do remember his claim that he was cheated out of Iowa in 2016) the Party whose nomination he still covets because he needs to be on the ballot but has never cheated him but he and his devotees have cheated it, by bullying past unifying requirements and processes by threatening to bolt on any pretext. The admittedly pathetic apparat he installed of course looks the other way. Trump’s aura is disloyalty and privilege among the worst order as it has been his pattern in his personal life.

Not going more negative earlier was particularly a mistake (in hindsight) for DeSantis for the above reasons and Trumps predictable MO. While all the candidates had some marginal lifting done for them by Haley’s friends at AFP and their poorly defined attack line on Trump — “chaos” “can’t win” — however well funded — supposedly allowing them to take the high road or something — and go nowhere. The candidate who fleshes out with insightful accuracy Trump’s failures , as a personnel executive, as a big spender, as a do little or do nothing on health care and social security, as actually a squish on key aspects of the culture wars along with Haley, but especially for the iatrogenic devastation he helped inflict with HIS project “warped speed”. A mass scale genetic manipulation foisted (I did not say forced but that is a subtlety of propaganda on his watch producing the same effect) on the public allowing the uninformed use of humans as lab mice. His warped speed only successfully immunized big pharma while lining their pockets. Whatever could possibly go wrong did.

This from Mr. “stand-up to corporate America, stand up to the bureaucracy”. Trump was too easily rolled and all it took was his distractions and some flattery, (something that can be built in again by the Swamp)  a guy who was too interested in his next election, snap decisions rather than educating himself about what was being done what the concoction really was, that he was telling people to be like lab-mice. And don’t get me started on his current continued promised pay-offs to Big Ethanol and Big Wind dominating Iowa’s corn crop for gas tanks instead of bellies in the face of devastating food inflation.

I saw or heard a lot of ads. Millions from each went to ad runs not against Trump but which in essence benefited Trump in that they tore down each other rather than call out Trump early on for his many clear shortcomings as an executive. To be sure money was spent to attack Trump but the greater amount to attack one another reduces the gee wiz total you dramatize does it not? Add in the value of “earned” media from outlets actually tuned into by conservative voters who ignore mainstream media when comparing to paid media makes the isolation of raw numbers meaningless.

This New York Times article that I just noticed as I write this also lends support to the irrelevance of the air-time dollars spent as well. In other words maybe they all wasted their money but Trump then prevails with all the hagiography in outlets like yours. Trump did some of what we paid him to do. That is a pure Trumpian analysis from a guy who made a lot of his celebrity bones firing people and moving on to whomever he thought were better choices (a pattern his personal life as well).  We are the board he is but CEO. We get to hire and fire. It is a Trump thing.

And to be sure Trump’s opponents have raised a lot of money but so has Trump. He just did not spend as much in Iowa as a percentage of what he has been raising as his legal bills are formidable and it is undeniable that millions of his allied pac money goes to that while raising it in part on the theme of being assaulted by “RINO’s”. He could be laying waste to Democrats instead he is being tied up in court, all part of the plan (and vulnerability)  while we give him a lot of sympathy votes and cash.  But we do not owe Trump any more than he owes Rudy Giuliani.

You say:
“Some people say that if the other candidates had united around one alternative, the results would have essentially been a tie. But that doesn’t reflect reality.”

The first sentance is of course a tautology. That “it does not reflect reality” (you do not say why) might depend on Trump’s propensity to “eat a live rat on stage”(say or do something really stupid for no good reason) and with his mouth because it is too late after the nomination and destroy OUR chances (should he be the nominee) at defeating EVEN Joe Biden which I believe any of the now three remaining candidates could do (including Trump if he could stifle himself having contributed to his own failure against Biden because of his public persona last time around. I still work full-time in a shop, all male, I had four male siblings growing up and banter, insult, are /were part of the interplay but that did/does not happen toward women when they can hear it. It seems most men know they don’t like it when it is directed at them regardless of how serious. Seeing it in a leader many reject him on that basis. However superficial it is that simple and Trump does not get it, and that is his woman problem and why another politician with similar to Trump policies would have won in 2020 overcoming the cheating.

You say:
Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out of the race last night and threw his support to Trump. If DeSantis drops out, polling shows that the majority of his voters would back Trump. Combined, Trump, DeSantis and Ramaswamy won 80% of the vote last night.

And in all seriousness if Trump became debilitated (he is not likely to die) as he is it appears “obese” and seventy-eight would not a great majority of his fans support a Ron DeSantis? So what does polling show if Trump drops out? And how much does that matter when to be president one must be elected in a general plebiscite not a party plebiscite. Trump can get 60% of the men vote. Will he , can he, get at least 40% of the women vote at least in enough of the electoral college numerating states? It was a women problem before with Trump but not on issues as much as his aura — his mouth, his formulations, his insults. Do you deny that? Mushy no-party women in the general are more a risk with Trump.

In this 2024 election we are in a warped way lucky to face Joe Biden and have the Democrat bench so weak. We ought to do this with the right guy. All the more reason to elect a superior executive, with more appeal to younger people including women, one who has not signaled revenge (not a great selling point in the general) and who is not a lame duck out of the gate, and is still so easily distracted by flattery, celebrity and flatterers,

You say:
A few weeks ago, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), who has been a real star in the past month as she took on the academic establishment, endorsed Donald Trump. Last night, she called on the other candidates to step aside.

Yes well Chip Roy and Tom Massie have called on Trump to step aside. So, what is your point. She has tied herself to Trump. As has now Ted Cruz who is up for reelection. Sort of like Chuck Grassley did, incredibly.

You say:
Former Speaker Newt Gingrich put it bluntly when he told Sean Hannity last night, “He’s the nominee. Get over it. He is the nominee. He’s going to win the nomination.”

Let me put it bluntly Newt: Maybe so but I want to win THE GENERAL with a guy with better executive talent and I think the greater appeal to women to dampen their anti-Trump attitude however superficial it is, and who has an appealing young family. I want to win with someone with an actual longer MAGA resume, more articulate, more insightful, less prone to eating a live rat on stage, a better fighter not a flailer, a veteran from the middle class who chose service to country at a young age compared to Trump who was too busy to do so as it might interfere with his dating schedule.

You say:
Oh, I almost forgot to mention that former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson also dropped out after finishing in sixth place with less than 200 votes.

Gee wiz if he spent $360,000, he would have surpassed Nikki in cost per vote.

Speaking of RINOs as Trump does everyone (although rendering it meaningless as he bandies it about so ridiculously) . . . seriously Chip Roy a RINO?! We have problems with Hutchinson to be sure but what is a better definition of a RINO then the disuniting tactic of someone who refuses to pledge to support the nominee of the Party whose nomination he covets, the result of grassroots participation, and who refuses to even recognize longer serving Republicans then him on a debate stage?  So far that includes Christie (who changed his mind after pledging to do so to get on stage now taking it back, and Trump

In conclusion I  will grant Trump is a competent professional wrestling impresario with a feel for the audience. As to the latter I am personally feeling vibes of a sort of country-club or manor-born demeanor (the depth and elocutions) who is willing to mix it up with the little people and pretend he is one of them.


See how 2024 Republicans spent more than $123 million on advertising in Iowa

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/15/politics/advertising-spending-iowa-republicans/index.htm

Do political ads even matter anymore?

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/17/us/politics/political-ads.htm

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Reasons to avoid the drama Queen from Queens. Vote for Ron DeSantis

EDITORS NOTE:  These comments reflect our opinion of Donald Trump’s performance and prospects, they are our crystal ball political arguments but it should be ingrained that they pale in comparison to the devastating effect we see on the republic of another term with a Democrat as chief executive and that party also in control of either the House or the Senate with the later able to continue to replace the judiciary.  Some candidates are better than others but those seeking the 2024 Republican nomination for president at this time are vastly superior compared to any Democrat loyal to that party, its platform, its culture AND any independent candidate we are aware of with any plausible chance to be elected at this stage of the process. It is existentially important to vote for the Republican nominee in the general election.


These are our top three reasons. Additional critiques of what we consider his shortcomings on this or that policy can be made about Trump as regards energy, culture, huge deficits, social security and health care reform, personnel, and more.  Again, Democrats are wrong, even evil on all those topics. Donald Trump  made improvements that are on the right track but there is another candidate we have confidence is better, has done better,  will do better than Trump and is less risky as to electability  — Ron DeSantis

Trump has disqualified himself for the nomination

Republicans should not support Trump a third time because he has disqualified himself by refusing to pledge support for the nominee of the party — ironically a rule that was put in place to protect him by an apparat he inspired and a chairman he has approved of repeatedly. His refusal is an authorization for future chaos in the party, tolerating it makes the party monarchical and a vehicle solely for the whims of the regent.

The idea that the nomination he covets would result in somebody unacceptable to the party base, all of whom are authorized to vote in caucuses or primaries and, given the length of the process, his view is an unacceptable self-serving insult, an assault on the integrity of the process and violation of appropriate rules that enhance unity behind the nominee including should it be him. Not supporting the considered opinion of the grassroots of the party makes Donald Trump a RINO, albeit a shibboleth he has degraded of much meaning by his bandying it about aiming it at Republicans he disagrees with or that challenge him.  Chip Roy for God sake.

Trump is not the most salable candidate in the general.  He has no reliable filter

We are just tired of the too often self-inflicted drama that surrounds Trump, the political chaos that surrounds him, his antagonistic ways, and especially his inadequate executive abilities. It does not matter that he is a victim of law-fare, that means in a way we are as well.  But prudent people in the market for an executive should always consider cutting their losses, the baggage, in favor of new proven champion and carrier of the message and policies they want implemented. Being elected or re-elected President is a privilege each time not a proprietary right.  Bad calls,  even crooked ones by the “referees”, dirty illegal tactics by the opposing team last season do not make the victimized player the best one to carry the ball this season.

If he or she  wants our vote for the nomination the candidate has to demonstrate a demeanor and an ability to articulate policies that we can expect will attract more voters than the Democrat AND who will not be a problem plagued, distracted or ill-focused executive upon winning.  We need a candidate who the general election voters will believe is more focused on improvement than revenge.  Trump has signaled he is after revenge. That he also says it is for us is not a great selling point for the additional voters needed to insure victory.

We believe the election is at risk because of an unfavorable aura that surrounds Trump  with a huge portion of the general election voting population, much of it is of  his own making.  It is his women problem and it has nothing to do with policy issues.  It is undeniable that he owns such an aura. Like the oil slick that leads to the damaged but still floating battleship, he refuses to stop the flow nor recognize the self-defeating harm it causes. (See previous post)

Trump’s “Operation ‘Warped’ Speed”

Donald Trump has shown no contriteness over his role in the devastation wrought by and through his executive authority and oversight of public health processes in the COVID epidemic and the foisting (we do not use the word forcing) on the American public, indeed the world, the zeitgeist behind the mRNA genetic manipulation, wrongly referring to it as a vaccine.

Trump pushed for a “warped speed” production and distribution (indeed bragging about it these last three years) while failing to educate himself or the public during that time on key matters related to the concoction being developed, its experimental nature.  He authorized proceeding with insufficient if any long term data as to any iatrogenic effects of such novel genetic approaches on humans to control viruses.

One cannot propose an experimental concoction for mass distribution, remove serious liabilities from those who will make a lot of money from the gambit, fund and otherwise facilitate propaganda behind taking the concoction, vastly increase the national debt in support of the zeitgeist (another iatrogenic effect)  and claim only the good which compared to alternative approaches is entirely debatable. Yes he was mislead but he was too easy a mark, his radar insufficiently protective and arguably ego driven on the matter.

Having their own health departments governors like DeSantis were not so gullible or enamored with a flattering DC bureaucracy.

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Who can deny Trump has a “women problem” . . . and it is his mouth?

This could be Part 3 of Why We Can’t Have Nice Primaries – Trump

First the actual clip of Casey DeSantis that generated all manner of  over the top accusations from Trump, his general modus when he isn’t decrying people who point out preposterous comments he makes. Trump et al accused Casey DeSantis of encouraging illegal voting (see broadsides set forth later) based on this clip:

What fevered mind, what incredible calumny spewing outfit creates the broadsides  that followed the comments from Casey DeSantis calling for people from across the nation to PARTICIPATE  in the Iowa Caucus, WHICH THEY CAN DO never saying VOTE in the caucuses which only Iowans can do.   But Trump and his people were looking for a gotcha in the most unmanly way.  The liberal Politifact, no friend of DeSantis, has an analysis and some receipts on the hypocrisy of the Trump-team accusation.

Politifact: Out-of-state residents can ‘participate’ in the Iowa caucuses, but they can’t vote in them

The stuff you see below is perhaps below even Victory Enterprises stuff.  How desperate does the Trump campaign have to be for whatever percent they are shooting for in Iowa to try and make something out of the supportive wife of a candidate encouraging people to help out on her husbands campaign?  It does not matter one twit where helpers come from to do door knocking, to make phone calls, stuff envelopes, help park cars, drive people to the caucuses, set up tables  . . . whatever.   Saying “participate” is calling for illegal voting is not merely an uncharitable interpretation it is a cheep unmanly lying one.  Really creepy.  Notice Trump does not actually quote Casey DeSantis, he characterizes what was said.

More on Trump women problem posted below the broadsides he issued.

Two variations, essentially the same, have come our way in recent days.  These are direct from the Trump campaign – no excuses. Front and back shown.

Trump has not just gone after Republican Casey DeSantis.  His woman problem is bigger than diminutive Casey. The problem with Trump on that score is the result of Trump’s aura his verbal treatment of women not his policies.

Remember Trump’s PUBLIC statements toward REPUBLICAN women who dare to challenge him — often cyberbullying comments . . . Carly Fiorina, Megyn Kelly, Bird Brain Nikki Haley, not to mention numerous woman of whatever political persuasion referring to them as “that dog” and as regards rape accusation however false -“she’s not my type”.

And do women forget Trumps comments about  “elevator screamers” . . . “grab ’em by the . . .  does anyone think that aura, that demeanor is good for winning in the general, a political plus, necessary, appropriate? It certainly reduces the possibilities.

Women are more than half the vote and perhaps the biggest reason Trump has to win through the electoral college (which he used to condemn by the way) rather than also the popular vote. Fortunately every Republican candidate’s good grace is that Joe Biden and or Kamala Harris are so much in bad repute that the Republican nominee ought to be able to win.  All the more reason to pick the best chief executive and not the most prolific twit – er (Trump).

Even when they are deserving of rebuke (usually) Trump too often defaults to commenting on the woman’s looks rather than anything insightful. That creates a women problem. And that is what gets the play because he is too self-centered to change and do better for us.

Scared people may well turn out in droves at the Iowa Caucuses They want their country back. But if their pick is Trump it will bring more chaos, not less, not the normalcy they crave nor the effectiveness in the executive that DeSantis would bring, less distracted, even more authentically intense, less tainted by revenge or oblivious as Trump is.

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This is why we can’t have nice primaries, Part 2

  • Rather than debate, Trump set the course for coarse by making  attacks, however childish, on other Republicans
  • Trump is every bit the RINO he accuses others of being.  How else can you define someone who refuses to pledge support to the nominee of the party whose nomination he covets, whose leadership he installed?
  • Trump threw the first disparaging punches at anyone who had the gumption and actual quals to run and especially if he (or she) looked to be a contender and not a VP applicant  
  • Even if time lines are flummoxed by the ongoing din, it is simply inarguable as to what Trump’s approach is to other candidates especially given that he refuses to debate and campaigns by tossing epithets
  • How bad is it?  The distortions that have spewed attacking Ron DeSantis are almost Victory Enterprises level stuff although the current attacks on DeSantis have the integrity to project their crap weeks ahead of the caucuses, unlike Victory Enterprises which preferred an even more shameless unmanly 11th hour approach leading up to a primary. You can review their stuff by clicking on the links.

If you are a Republican in Iowa, and especially if you have voted in the caucuses before, you likely will have received from each of the main contenders for the Republican presidential nomination dozens of  broadsides (large postcard advertisements) typically 11 inch by 6 inch or larger, two-sided mailers that are either attack pieces, laudatory, or some combination. We have received at least 125 since summer in addition to direct-mail envelopes, countless texts and perhaps 30 e-mails a day ( a lot go to spam) not to mention the extensive radio and TV or streaming ads in our purview.

As for phone calls, not sure of all the purposes of the calls because we do not answer calls from numbers we do not know, but 6 to 10 a day is a guess related to the nomination process that probably are either push polling, preference collectors, or candidate fund raisers. Not answering will be the same response to the anticipated daily plethora of  calls I anticipate in the fall hectoring me to vote by mail, even though it is less secure, and I have never skipped an election.  The vote by mail if you know what’s good for you calls are  actually threatening — once answered — suggesting the calls will stop only if I vote by mail (they won’t) and they will be glad to bring me everything I need to get the bounty ball rolling.

In this commentary we are defending Ron Desantis who we support for the Republican nominati0n and challenging in particular Trump and Nikki Haley for the broadsides and other ads, being run against him. The worst of the attack components make statements that are as inflammatory as can be with sketchy, out of context quotes, calumnious summations using references that are a study in obfuscation with hope-you- won’t-check-the-tiny-type-face “documentation” (see our annotations to the samples embedded herein).

In attack mode, the worst are mendacious, two-faced, traducing, misleading examples of the copywriters shameful yellow art.  In these last few weeks the attack-themed ones have gotten more numerous.

Often the most egregious actors in all this are the allied PACs and those supposedly independent of any candidate but set up to disparage one or another candidate. This allows the  official campaign to seem to take the high road.  The candidate is thus able to deny responsibility even if without a straight face. It is all so transparent however.

But if that is how it is going to be, so be it. Trump certainly cannot claim innocence or non-participation or victimhood.  He gives no quarter and can expect none.

The most aggressive of late seems to be from Nikki Haley (and friends)  directed at Ron DeSantis.  Haley who has claimed to be, based on one outlier poll, not only the leading contender to Trump but more likely to beat Biden than anyone including Trump.

Early on Haley did not take on Trump directly, her campaign benefactors were content that efforts be focused on putting DeSantis out of the game as he was more the danger to the deep state then Trump who is far more vulnerable to being distracted. It is now clear that the anti–Trump element has chosen her.

Haley is currently going after DeSantis for, wait for it, mimicking Trump (the implication should be to Trumpistas that being like Trump is a bad thing. Never mind that DeSantis was bonafide MAGA (TEA Party and Congressional Liberty Caucus Chair) when Trump was still singing Hillary’s praises. If there is any mimicking going on it is Trump glomming on to some of DeSantis’ longer held and more articulate positions.

In other current ad flights Haley or her friends rightly attack Biden as too old and that he is not going to make it through another term, so “say hello to President Kamala Harris”, unless of course she (Haley) is the nominee. The ads also say  ~~ time for a new generation ~~ which we agree with as members of the boomer cohort.

But the not so subtle other side of the attack line on Biden is that Trump is too old, oh, and that ALL 75 year olds running for office should have a competency test. It is only slightly oblique as to Trump but sauce for the goose sauce for the gander.

Haley is properly up front that Biden is too old, but in doing so implies politicians of Biden’s age need to make way for a new generation. If Trump wins against Biden (a likelihood of any plausible Republican nominee) Trump (only three years younger)  would be older than Biden when Biden was installed four years ago.  Haley also refers to Congress as something like an exclusive nursing home (a good line).

Clearly Haley is not running for VP but she is serving at a minimum to do a number on DeSantis and obliquely Trump in the respective ads. The extent of the money spent by her PAC and allied PACs to do negatives on DeSantis must be gargantuan and now Americans for Prosperity Action has come out of the closet and endorsed Haley directly. That would be the same group who Trumpistas insisted was supporting DeSantis. They are spending a ton of money to stop DeSantis and Trump.

The Trumpista attack line on DeSantis used to be that he is  a swamp toady.  Never mind that the swamp prefers Trump because they figure he can be tied up easier and DeSantis would not have the distractions they have initiated and the fact that DeSantis has promised to begin slitting their throats on day one.  They know his performance record means he means it.

Haleys support – neocons and various billionaires including Koch’s illegal immigration friendly / Americans for Prosperity (an interesting combination) are united by anybody but Trump or DeSantis.  Nikki Haley would not be allowed to attack DeSantis so frequently if the swamp looked on DeSantis as one of them.  Rather, they would enjoin Haley to concentrate on Trump instead of “their boy” DeSantis. And yet the Trump attack line on DeSantis continues.

Irony abounds in Haley and Trump attacks on DeSantis — the ad receipts 

If Trumpistas would open their eyes they would see that:  1) Haley’s attacks on DeSantis point to him as the superior alternative to Trump that she must defeat, 2) Haley accuses DeSantis of mimicking Trump which is to say anti-Trump people should look to her, 3)  we see that the billionaire corporate interests are lining up with her – belying the Trumpistas’ accusations against DeSantis and 4) if the latter (corporate support) was seriously a concern for Trumpistas they ought to find it a bit unsettling when Trump sucks up to Big Ethanol, Big Wind, Big Pharma as he most certainly does, he brags that he has   given them special sustenance.

Another irony, Trump is essentially a corporate board (open to as much criticism as Nancy Pelosi as to family business access to information and influence) but DeSantis does not sit on any corporate board, his family is young and his earned reputation is to take on special corporate interests and privilege and their irresponsible denigration of culture (Disney).  Need we detail DeSantis’ articulation against DEI compared to Trump and his efforts against ESG? See here and here.

The energy rap:

Both Haley and/ or her friends and Trump and /or his friends have attacked DeSantis accusing him of being two-faced on energy development – specifically fracking and offshore drilling. See broadsides.

Haleyites have even run an ad purporting that DeSantis opposes ALL fracking Readers must have  seen it —  the egregiously lying “yeah, yep, yep” spot of DeSantis responding to a woman’s question in a bustling room about fracking in THE FLORIDA EVERGLADES — something that the people of Florida oppose.

The lies and distortion and hypocrisy of their attacks on DeSantis on that can be understood by honest people who investigate a bit or ask a couple key questions.  Even Trumpistas when they find a sense of balance.  Ask Trump and Haley what their positions are on fracking and off-shore drilling in truly environmentally sensitive areas or even just aesthetic areas.

Ask Nikki Haley and Donald Trump if they are OK with fracking in the Everglades National Park.  Ask both (especially Haley) about fracking in the Cypress Swamps of South Carolina or anywhere in the Santee region.  How about some drilling platforms nearby off of Hilton Head or Myrtle Beach? And as for Trump, how about a nice juicy one off of Mar-a-Lago? It is just jaw-dropping incredible what they, and or their operatives are allowed to say in furtherance of their quest. Does even Trump not cringe when such attacks go out . . . when his own administration opposed more offshore drilling off of Florida?  No, because he is insufferable in his campaign style. And by the way the offshore ban is for new drilling closer than 3 miles off the Atlantic coast and 9 miles off  the Gulf Coast but still allows it within territorial waters (12 miles).

As pro-fossil energy as we are, we would demure on fracking or drilling in those areas as well given that alternate grand oil basins are not in nearly as economically or environmentally sensitive areas. But maybe we should not be surprised at Trump using the attack line since he arguably champions risking water-tables in other ways and places, like here in Iowa.  He does after all champion  using half the corn crop, more than half this state’s farm acreage for ethanol to be burned in cars, via favorable treatments including marketing mandates, all while grocery and meat prices are high.

But maybe there is hope for sensible environmental reasoning with DeSantis while still being aggressive with fossil fuel production as needed.  True, and to his credit, DeSantis has opposed renewal  of the Renewable Fuel Standard (the ethanol mandate) but with Reynolds on board with his campaign his position seems to be changed.

The Social Security rap  

Trump castigates DeSantis for wanting to reform Social Security, a hornbook conservative proposal for decades. Trump’s economy, as good as it comparatively was, still plagued the country with deficits aggravated by the mega appropriations bills he signed more than once:  “Trump’s” economy did not do much to alter the ooming “lock box” Social Security trust fund deficit date.  And of course never mind Trump’s championing of the Romney-Ryan team when  they favored changes, like DeSantis, that would not affect current recipients but would help sustain their benefits in the out years. And ask Trump if any changes are to be tolerated or is that somehow a broken promise as regards a twenty-year old starting out in the economy that he or she might never see unless SS is restructured (unless the  largely Democrat zeitgeist of assisted suicide takes hold aggravated by “pandemics” —  see Oregon,  Washington, Hawaii, Maine . . .).

It is such a phony attack by Trump.  There is a schedule for  increasing “full retirement benefit” ages yet all of those affected started paying in when the retirement age was fixed at 65. Was that somehow a broken promise? Does Trump want to go back to 65 and what recompense is there to be for those government takings of what was  “promised” all those people?  Honest people want to know.  

What is particularly insufferable is that Trump previously backed policies on Social Security for which he’s now attacking DeSantis, calling the program a ‘Ponzi scheme’.

Of course Trump prefers the income tax system

Trump apparently does not want anyone mucking with the grandness, the majesty, the essence of the income tax as the government’s primary way of funding the Federal government?

According to Trump’s distortions —  did you know DeSantis wants to somehow increase your taxes and win your vote!!?   . . . impose a 23% sales tax as if that was on top of the manipulable income tax Trump merely wants to ‘improve”.

Trump came up with that distortion because DeSantis  supported the Fair Tax. We support the concept as well. It is a replacement tax system based on consumption — a replacement of the income tax based system with all its distortions.

The fair tax is a system far more transparent that does indeed require everybody to realize they have a piece of the action of government. Sure everyone pays taxes up front with their purchases under the system (variations might have this or that exemption for all) . . .  and why shouldn’t they? The essence of the concept is to END the income tax.  Our government survived without the income tax before politicians found the income tax allowed for all manner of obscure manipulations to benefit their donors, and otherwise sustain their sinecures. 

Honest people admit that under the Fair Tax System those in poverty get a welfare check on the back-side, it is just not ridiculously called earned -income tax credit or possessed of built in obliviousness to the cost of government. Furthermore the system avoids punishing earnings for the purpose of savings or investment as the income tax does.

The 23% charge against DeSantis is another ugly distortion from Trump — his hallmark campaign MO.

The soft on illegal immigration broadside and the obfuscations in the small print “documentation” (they really don’t want you to check their claims)

According to Haley’s allied organization Stand for America, Inc (SFA) which did much of the specific anti-DeSantis broadsides and other media attacking DeSantis to benefit Haley’s campaign: They say:  Ron DeSantis’ immigration policy is AMNESTY TO ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS; NO FUNDING FOR THE BORDER WALL, NO INCREASED FUNDING FOR THE BORDER PATROL.

Of course they are bold face lies. There is not another term more appropriate.

Haleys friends at SFA cannot show any such policy position because DeSantis’  actual stated and posted policies expose their calumny.  His record on the matter as governor of Florida giving executive orders more so reflects “policy” because of the higher degree of autonomy a governor enjoys. DeSantis has proved his mettle famously busing illegals to Blue states and sanctuary cities demonstrating and sharing the crisis border states experience. Further, he sent law enforcement personnel and Florida NG units to Texas to help secure the border He has called for Special Forces intervention  against the drug cartels and human traffickers. He is against amnesty for illegal entry.

While falsely characterizing his votes the SFA broadside’s lies refer to the time period DeSantis was a congressman. Votes there may be compromises, or laden with multiple issues (damned if you do, damned if you don’t) or must pass omnibus elements that an individual congressman has exhausted any ability to impact but may vote for as the lesser of evils or the impossibility of timely alternatives to the situation.

Even at that,  looking at the good company DeSantis was in with his votes gives readers another clue that the emblazoned accusations are also shibboleths against renowned conservative champions of protecting the border and our immigration laws.  In tiny print the SFA hit piece offers the “documentation”  “HR 6136”,  “HR 1625  2018”, and “HB 3354 , 2017” we needed a magnifying glass to verify the numbers as they are set in a font about 1/3 the size you are reading this commentary.

On HR 6136 DeSantis was joined by the likes of  Marsha Blackburn (then a congresswoman), the particularly well known amnesty loving Iowan Steve King, Tom Massie, Louis Gohmert and others. On HR 1625 Desantis was joined by those same people and we should also mention border state personage Andy Biggs (now chair of the House Freedom Caucus).  On the Senate side for that bill DeSantis was joined by Mike Lee, Rand Paul, John Kennedy, Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton and other conservatives. HB 3354 was another  multi-department appropriations measure a “partisan whipped bill” which means it was sponsored by the Speaker, then Paul Ryan. Nuff said. DeSantis opposed it. The bill died in chamber.

When  Florida Governor DeSantis debated California Governor Newsom a few weeks ago the soft on immigration  attack line against DeSantis was incredibly used by Newsom to try to weaken DeSantis before the nation. Of course DeSantis’ record preceded him but Newsom tried to paint DeSantis as a supporter and enabler of illegal immigration, not that Newsom is not one in reality.  He did so in order to undermine DeSantis against Trump. The liberal Politifact rated Newsom’s attack on DeSantis:

Gavin Newsom’s  mostly False claim about Ron DeSantis’ support of amnesty for immigrants

It is a clear read that we commend to you for the record.


The above commentary showcases just some of the Haley and Trump distortions, hypocrisies, calumnies used against DeSantis.  In a later post this week we will comment on  Trump’s  “undeserving” riff, and his RINO riff  towards DeSantis.  The preposterous attack by Trump on DeSantis’ wife Casey, what ought to disqualify Trump (not false charges of insurrection or the various law-fare attacks made against him), Trump’s dumbfounding comments regarding the Civil War, “women” and our greatest complaint about Trumps performance in office and after leaving his operation Warp Speed.

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CAUCUS INFORMATION SCOTT COUNTY IA

Thanks to SF for providing the following information, edited/annotated for navigating this website.

This is a streamlined version of caucus procedure, the caucus locations are not yet posted on the Scott County Republican site but a finalized version supplied us is set forth below.  Check with that site in case of any updates.

Due to the small print in the locations chart, readers should be able to double click on the chart and proceed to expand it or drag it off to your desktop and engage it there with “preview” or other manipulation application.

CAUCUS DAY, TIME, BASIC PROCESS

MONDAY JANUARY 15, 2024 7:00 PM

Note: Find your caucus location for your precinct in chart below  The location is NOT likely to be where you usually vote).  You must know your precinct (finder below)

You can register to vote OR change your registration to Republican on Caucus night
Get there early 6-6:30

7:00 Caucus called to order by the temporary Chairman
Election of Permanent Chairman and Secretary

Lincoln Bag for donation, these dollars stay with the Scott county Republicans to help defray costs of caucus

Presidential Poll
Reps from each campaign allowed to speak (3-5 minutes)
Paper ballots collected, counted and announced

Election of Precinct Committeemen
2 per precinct to serve a two year term

Election of County Delegates for the County Convention on February 17

Platform Resolutions submitted to be considered for the County Convention

Adjourment

Find your PRECINCT:
online at scottcoiowa.gov/auditor/precinct-finder
OR CALL at 563.326.8631

 

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This is why we cannot have nice primaries, part 1

Trump embraced name calling and distortions of the policy positions of political rivals for the Republican nomination early upon his official entry on the political scene. He dominated the 2016 primary with taunts, distortion and innuendo in 2016. He saw the strength of the TEA Party movement in the party. He read the rooms sentiment of distrust and impatience and preceded to aggravate aspects, heedless of any distortions heaped on the records of solid conservatives.

The dominant liberal media helped Trump in the 2016 primary, giving him extraordinary attention because they wanted chaos in the Republican Party and the candidate they thought the most vulnerable to win or at least serve as an enthusiastic participant in damaging the others. Of course they used Trump only to find or invent all manner of scandal after the nomination.

It did not quite work as far as the electoral college as the American people were faced with Hillary Clinton as the alternative, a candidate hard to like by women or men, and sufficient right-thinking people found the America First theme Trump adopted (but did not invent)  was compelling. Trump pretty much stayed with that program. The dominant liberal media’s trying to portray it as Nazi 2.0 mostly spoke to the liberal choir. Enough people in the right states were concerned about the culture, the effect upon that of open borders and knowing all candidates are sinners to some degree were nonplussed.

Trump apparently thinks nothing succeeds like success, even though the cheating might have been overcome had Trump stifled himself with the tweets that were more sophomoric than presidential. His aura lost or failed to inspire votes in spite of a pretty good record. Trump “Inc”  has decided for the primary to lead again with taunts, distortion and innuendo with no rational selectivity against fellow Republicans or fellow RINOs (is there any rival he has not called or inferred is a RINO).

We say fellow RINOs to include Trump because Trump must be one given he refuses to abide by the rules of the RNC regarding the requirement of a pledge to support the eventual nominee. The term as he bandies it cannot be about issues as few have positions that are not arguably consistent with GOP platforms or at least schools of conservative thought and which have no more exceptions and apostasies than Trump.

Trump should not be immune from the whirlwind his blowhardiness aggravates. Goose meet gander. So here we are.

Trump is also self-serving and hypocritical  on the matter of not pledging to support the nominee (perhaps Trumpistas would prefer the term exceptional) since he pretty much established the current party apparat and the rule was designed to protect Trump. We now guess the unwritten codicil is “except for Trump”.   We find Trump’s refusal irresponsible and disqualifying.

Chris Christie will never be the nominee but if Trump thinks he is a threat then why is he running in the Republican primary so supposedly filled with virulent anti-Trump people that he will pledge to support the nominee? How could he be so worried? Does he think the Republican Party apparat he endorsed is anti-Trump, corrupt and will cheat like Democrats do? Even if a Trump pledge had all the snide sincerity of Chris Christie’s pledge as regards Trump, at least he would fulfill the simple basic party unifying requirement. If Trump is so dominant wouldn’t that be a throwaway statement like so many he has made. . . . lock her up . . . I’ll build the wall and make Mexico pay for it . . . I’ll end Obamacare . . .

Trump has brandished his bellicose and braggadocious manner  as his political persona (if that is what Queens produces then give me the refinement of an old-west mining town) and his supporters defend it.  For 2024 it is our observation that DeSantis and some of the others did not throw the first punches against Trump and kept the cheek turned for quite awhile, I think in retrospect to their detriment.

Trump could not be coaxed to be selective in the quality or timing of his rebukes.  We do not think his persona really works all that well with most people, (it didn’t produce a popular victory in 2016) nor is it necessary beyond appeal to professional wrestling fans. We were robbed in various ways in 2020 but then the Dems focused on key electoral battleground states.

Trump’s presentation hurts him with a majority of women (and many men) in the general who, as superficial as they are in their reasoning, do vote.  In 2016 Trump had the good fortune of being up against a woman who other women disliked even more or enough to at least enable Trump’s electoral vote win (while losing the popular vote).

Because of  Trump being Trump (Reagan had no such problem for reelection) in 2020 they became even more-so open to the Dems gropey neck-sniffer alternative portrayed as just good-old uncle Joe.  Of course Hunter’s laptop and all the revelations it contained were hidden from them. More would have come around but other than for Trump being Trump the laptop should not have been necessary based on his record. It must be his aura.

He did for the most part what the public health nazis wanted during the great panic which his operation warp speed was key to, promoting an experimental drug on mass scale. What could possibly go wrong.

So for a great many, too many for other than an egotist not to see and adjust one’s demeanor, a lot of the 2020 vote was not about policy as much as persona, one which they would not dismiss as a schtick. With a decent record, how do you lose to a goof ball guy hiding in a basement even with a bunch of cheating.

Women may shift (they will still likely be majority Dem) for 2024 because of revelations about Biden but we do not think Trump helps the shift, rather he minimizes it. Trump’s smash-mouth approach is too much and poorly directed, and his whining when it is returned, after leading with it, causes him to lose any high ground with too many people who hold their vote dear, even against interests.  The law fare abuse heaped on him is his saving grace in some ways but as it exposes the Dems including for their hypocrisy making them perhaps untenable given revelations about Biden corruption not to mention Biden performance.  It gives them their best chance to distract Republicans and tie up Trump when better executives can win. Trump was not a a very good executive.

For a campaign that in virtually every communication tells us how great Trump is doing, how poll after poll says he is blowing away the competition, Trump and his aligned entities  are spending a lot of time and money in Iowa. They probably think they have to in order keep up expectations, rather than spending it on his legal situation.  Of course he is successfully raising millions and millions to cover that (a high percentage of donations going to that) so we needn’t fret that he is being impoverished with legal bills, unlike Giuliani, his great defender.*

In our next post we will set forth examples of the climate Trump aggressively engendered the whirlwind he is part of.


*The civil claim and awards against Giuliani for defamation were of course preposterous,  in our judgement so out of line with any semblance of equity or any relation to actual harm done had we served on the jury. For crying out loud a city sanitation worker could be killed while on duty by a negligent person and his heirs likely would not receive such an award in equity or punitive damages.

We think Giuliani and the jury ought to have maintained his free speech rights as an absolute in the context of the politics, expression of opinion and his role as an activist lawyer, political activist and the impossible onus to never make mistakes in that realm. We fervently hope the actual decision can be overturned on appeal or the award reduced to something more reasonable for any actual harm like a few hundred bucks for a lifetime VPN for the claiments pearl clutching and they pay their own attorney fees due to the politicized law-fare process. Giuliani was damaged more than enough with his legal expenses.

As an aside, and many might cogently disagree,  we also think civil servants should have no more  immunities or special protections than elected politicians such that the concept of civil servant is flawed as they inextricably operate in a political environment where politicized statements are inherent. In other words it comes with the territory.

We can only wish for a jury with a similar mindset when it comes to harm caused BY a civil servant like Fauchi should he be successfully sued for any harm done in his former capacity.

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Regarding Trump being the only or best Republican choice for president

This editor does not think Trump is the best Republican choice for president or even the best populist choice if they want to see change that is sustainable. Here are some reasons:

Some missing trophies

Trump talks a good game to the fans, did some things we hired him to do as President, let others slide or was overwhelmed by  them.

Now his biggest fans will always maintain that it is always someone else’s fault. We are only modest fans, because we see Trump as not that great at reading or bringing along the opposition necessary for most policies to see fruition.  We are not talking about him compromising, rather his ability to make the Democrats do so.

In four years Trump did not finish the wall (he was willing to use all manner of other EOs) yet if he could not make the case that it was a national emergency even in 2019 to proceed with all deliberate speed then he is a pretty weak communicator, one who cannot reach beyond the choir.

Hillary is still walking around and she is as dirty as Biden. No investigation. That after how  many rallies with people chanting LOCK HER UP.  Trump played that to the hilt, who can deny it?

Obamacare is still in place, Trump’s improvement on the situation minor.

Trump’s opposition to seriously needed social security reforms are irresponsible and portend more deficit than even Biden could accomplish in four years.

Trump elicited little politically in his readiness to sign deficit burdening spending bills.

He is not as beloved as he seems to think — there is the 2022 election fiasco.

He is actually a RINO. He basically appoints the RNC Chair but will have nothing to do with its processes. He will not pledge to support the nominee of the party yet he wants its nomination so badly and somehow expects its complete loyalty when he will not give it in return. He won’t debate, and so cannot expect Biden to debate (again) giving up that juxtaposition for its full worth.

Besides dissing the party that provides the primaries he covets, he must think his little bon mots will devastate his challengers and yet he and his uber-supporters go into high dudgeon when one or more of his competitors for the nomination criticize his  governmental administrative abilities, his tendency to distraction and his failures.

Many claim Trump has the experience and heart necessary to win but the one that we favor has more executive experience, legislative experience, veteran experience (Trump could not be bothered as it would have delayed his real-estate career and date nights) and who has thus served the country longer — indeed MAGA years before Trump when he was still singing Hillary’s praises and supporting Romney-Ryan.

Trump’s blowhardiness is so ingrained that he refuses to realize if you realistically can’t do something don’t say you will do so as that just becomes the political BS like so many others issue. Such extravagant promises are the theater of professional wrestling not responsible politics.

Trump’s current demeanor is such that, should he win, everything he does to clean things up will be handicapped by his aura of vendetta.

Further, I am tired of his bluster and drama and stupid name calling which is such that it has produced a woman problem, not on issues but his personna.

Trump was not a great administrator, was easily distracted and is as likely now just to surround himself with a different set of flatterers.

My greatest complaint, the aforementioned being comparative picadillos, is Trump’s  total lack of contriteness over his part in inflicting on this country, indeed the world, the warped process and results of mRNA non-vaccine which only thoroughly immunized while super-funding Big Pharma. The mRNA concoction is a novel genetic manipulation unlike any true vaccine, largely untested in a dependable way, pushed en mass Trump was OK with using the population as a whole as lab mice — and what could possibly go wrong.

NOW with a plethora of peer reviewed reports of its iatragenic effects many long-term it is actually the most deadly vaccine ever. And yet candidate Trump still wants credit for its development and promotion and never mind that his two weeks of shutdown to include closing schools was a precursor for generational disaster ( perhaps no more extravagant a statement than those Trump makes about his claimed success).

Now all this said I believe Trump could win but it is mostly because of the horrible Democrat candidate(s), Biden’s performance, policy, and the radical nature of  his supporters and his general ickiness. But I want the smoothest sailing in the general. Trump only engages by throwing epithets not debating. Trump’s refusal to pledge to support the nominee other than himself, the judgement of the people whose nomination he covets,  is disloyal and disqualifying for the Republican Party nomination.

Truth is Trump was never an outsider to the political game. He played it his entire adult life in New York and everywhere he had to navigate local state and national politics and politicians  to build his hotels. Who thinks he was unaware of jealousies, corruption, treachery, “access” (payoffs), lawfare, everything he has run into as President (some of which he practiced for crying out loud)?  

He was not naive or an immature player but he has and continues to have a penchant for requiring flattery and loving celebrity, to his and our detriment.

We are all sinners and every politician has baggage but some gondolas are not the easiest for us schlubs to schlep.

I feel Trump is a riskier choice in the general for those reasons and more and that he is an inferior administrator who will just pick a different group of flatterers for his entourage. Trump with all his distractions will not have as successful a term as an experienced  governor like DeSantis who is less encumbered. Everything Trump does will be considered revenge seeking because he has pretty-much telegraphed as much, creating such an aura about himself.

We may like the idea of revenge and rubbing the Dems face in it but who else cares is relevant if you want to defeat the Democrats.   

I understand the vociferous Trump-only support wanting some sort of in your face catharsis regarding all the wrongs visited on Trump. It is the “we will show you by nominating him again” emotion and the campaign then becomes one of having to defend Trump. 

It is just not all that great a convincing aura for the general election voter.

Let’s say Trump has 60 to 65% support of men (unfortunately not all likely voters) . He will need 40% plus support of women to allow for their greater voting percentage, Dems cheating etc. Trump has more of a visceral women problem not due to issues but to his personna, than DeSantis. I think DeSantis can achieve more of the women vote and hold onto men assuming Trumps men support is more engaged and philosophical than professional wrestling fans. That is the flavor of polls at this stage, it is more chest beating bruha than substantive serious thinking about the general and who will “govern” with the most effectiveness and least drama..

Who cares?  Anybody who wants to win the general — as a lot of people vote straight Democrat, and a lot of people do not like Trump.  I guess they care, however wrong or ill-informed they are,   but they vote.

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